The rise of DUBAWI

published: 31 Aug 2015 in Pedigree analysis

Whichever way you analyse it, there is no getting away from which sire is dominating proceedings in the northern hemisphere. With eight Group 1 winners so far this year – double that of his nearest rivals – Dubawi is without doubt the one to beat in 2015.

Built in the mould of some of the thoroughbred’s best stallions, like Northern Dancer and Danzig, Dubawi was the ninth of 56 foals produced from the only crop of the much taller and arguably more elegant Dubai Millennium, a brilliant racehorse who won nine of his ten races and proved unbeatable at 1600m and 2000m at the turn of the century. Undefeated in three two-year-old races, including the G1 National Stakes at the Curragh, Dubawi proved most proficient at 1600m before and after his brief encounter with 2400m in the Derby where he finished third to Treve’s sire Motivator. Prior to the Derby he’d returned to the Curragh to take the G1 Irish 2,000 Guineas and afterwards went on to win the all-aged G1 Prix Jacques le Marois over Deauville’s straight 1600m and then ran an excellent second to Starcraft in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, this time over Newmarket’s straight mile.

With a Timeform best of 129, there were no holes in Dubawi’s form and his pedigree also offered plenty of hope that he’d make a good sire. After all his already-proven stud companion In The Wings also hailed from this family. That said, not even the most optimistic among us would have predicted the degree to which this 15.3HH neat bay stallion would dominate the stallion world in Europe.

The Dubawis are instantly recognisable, but not by their coat colour or size, rather by the way they seem to give everything in a fight. Many resemble their grandsire in size and stature like Poet’s Voice and many are influenced by their dams when it comes to what distance best suits them. He’s quite capable of getting a top sprinter like Lucky Nine or Classic-winning milers like Makfi or Night Of Thunder, or indeed G1 winners at 2000m and 2400m such as 2015 G1 Prix du Jockey-Club hero New Bay or Al Kazeem.

Like all top-class stallions, Dubawi has proved very adept at getting more than could reasonably be expected from his mares. His 76 northern-hemisphere sired Stakes winners make up 14% of his runners and they have an average Timeform rating of 112. These same mares when mated with all other stallions have only managed 9.5% Stakes winners whose average Timeform rating is 2lb lower. These statistics present irrefutable evidence of Dubawi’s prepotency. By way of comparison, his main rival in Europe Galileo also sires 14% Stakes winners with an average Timeform rating of 115. However, Galileo’s mares are of a higher standard as their score of 13% Stakes winners with other stallions suggests. He too gets Stakes winners with a 2lb advantage over their siblings. Clearly two elite sires.

It gets all the more interesting when we compare Dubawi with his peers counting only progeny of elite mares. If you have a top-class mare and can get her on to Dubawi’s book, your odds of coming up with a Stakes winner shoots up to 19% while Galileo’s also climbs to 17%. Interestingly, both stallions had stints in the southern hemisphere but for various reasons neither remained permanently on the shuttle, Dubawi sired three crops in Australia, where his ability to get sprinter/milers served him well. All told he’s sired 20 Stakes winners or 11% of his runners from mares that managed only 4% with other sires. Perhaps here was a genuine rival for Redoute’s Choice or Zabeel, had he progressed to better quality mares. Redoute’s Choice gets 12% Stakes winners and Zabeel 11%. Given Dubawi’s prowess it’s no wonder that he’s reached 50 Stakes winners at a faster rate than any other sire and with his best-bred crops ahead of him, we can expect the numbers to rise further, even if the gap between his output and that of his mares’ other foals narrows, as it is likely to do. n

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE-bred foals                    
TFR (Timeform Rating), BTH (Black Type Horses), BTW (Black Type Winner), MxD (Maximum Winning Distance)        
  Rnrs Wnrs % BTH % TFR BTW % TFR GW % TFR
Sire 539 384 71.2 117 21.7 112 76 14.1 115 50 9.3 118
Siblings 1994 1301 65.2 320 16 110 190 9.5 113 100 5 116
TF RATINGS Rnrs Avg T10 80+ % TFR 100+ % TFR 115+ % TFR
Sire 375 89.9 127 264 70.4 99 121 32.3 111 40 10.7 121
Siblings 1174 86 125 714 60.8 97 300 25.6 110 85 7.2 118
Top 10 Horses by Timeform Ratings                    
TFR Best Horse Sex Dam Broodmare Sire Starts W P MxD      
130 G1w Makfi 07c Dhelaal Green Desert 6 4 0 8      
130 G3w Time Test 12c Passage Of Time Dansili 5 3 2 10      
128 G1w Al Kazeem 08c Kazeem Darshaan 23 10 8 12      
128 G1w Monterosso 07c Porto Roca Barathea 17 7 3 12.4      
127 G1w Night of Thunder 11c Forest Storm Galileo 10 4 4 8      
126 G1w Hunter's Light 08c Portmanteau Barathea 27 12 5 11.1      
126 G1w Prince Bishop 07g North East Bay Prospect Bay 28 11 6 12      
126 G1w Akeed Mofeed  09c Wonder Why Tiger Hill 17 6 3 9.9      
126 G1w Poet's Voice 07c Bright Tiara Chief's Crown 16 4 5 8      
126 G2wG1p Aljamaaheer  09c Kelly Nicole Rainbow Quest 19 3 10 8      
Yearling Sales                      
  Crop Fee Off Sold % Avg Siblings XFee Profit      
Career 1 to 7 £. 25,389 257 222 86.4 £. 141,018 £. 76,840 4.7 55.4      
Last Year 7 £. 75,000 15 13 86.7 £. 624,484 £. 207,102 8.3 92.3