Date posted October 31, 2009 | Posted by Warren Wruck | Filed under
Racing and BreedingThe Victorian Derby, Coolmore Stud Stakes, Myer Classic and the Mackinnon Stakes. And that‘s only the Group Ones!
Welcome to Derby Day at Flemington!
Add in the Group 2 Salinger (surely it deserves to be a Group 1!), Group 2 Wakeful Stakes, the Group 3’s - the Inglis Carbine Club S, AAMi Business Insurance Stakes and The Lexus Stakes, and we are squarely focussed on Melbourne Spring Racing’s best race day. It’s all class.
Let’s take a look at the races from the very beginning of the card.
1. Inglis Carbine Club Stakes: The Comedian. In a race of many chances, he looks the one. He is a high priced yearling, he has won his last two and he should have their measure. There will be others fancied like the top four in race book order, Kidnapped, Bawaardi, Euphemism and Disco Summit, but from a future standpoint, The Comedian looks the one. Look to Euphemism for the surprise?
2. The Lexus Stakes: Tough race. If you must, look at an exotic mix of 1,2,4,7. That leaves out the fancied Hume but this is a race where the longshots most likely won’t help multiples and a short list of chances is required. Shocking (4) is the one that is most likely.
3. Longines Wakeful Stakes: Stick with Faint Perfume, Melito, Run For Naara and throw in Mont Fleuri. 6,1,3,7. If Melito is an each way price, then that would be the way to go.
4. Coolmore Stud Stakes: Formerly known as the Ascot Vale Stakes, this is the race once won by Coolmore’s very own sire sensation Encosta de Lago. It will without doubt develop a reputation as a sire making race, at least in the years when the fillies don’t upstage the colts! The race has a fantastic honour roll and the field this year is worthy. Let’s go with Demerit to beat Irish Lights, More Than Great and Wanted. Demerit is the street corner tip. Do not underestimate More Than Great and how could you ignore the form of Irish Lights as she attempts to win her owners’ own sponsored race? Wanted will crunch a big race one day and this could be it?
5. Mackinnon Stakes: Seems to be treated as the “last chance saloon” for horses to get into the Melbourne Cup while for others it is a fitness gallop for the very same great race. As a result its Group One status perhaps should be brought into question. The Salinger is a far more worthy race for Group 1 status on this card. However, the Mackinnon always attracts a good field and this year is no exception. A horse that has been set an astute programme is most assuredly Rangirangdoo. A class act, he displayed his enormous ability last start at the Valley, breaking the track record into the bargain. Distance should suit and this would be his grand final while almost all the other fancied runners have an appointment with destiny on Tuesday. Scenic Shot will find this much easier than the Cox Plate and is the logical danger, while Rangirangdoo’s arch rival from Sydney, Drumbeats, could be an interesting opponent. As for other selections, perhaps Zipping who seems to have found form quickly this time in, and Vigor who also returned to form with his third pacing in the Caulfield Cup, can figure.
6. AAMI Victorian Derby: Race favourite Shamoline Warrior has been scratched - see earlier story on the Stallions website. Selections are 4, 8, 1, 7, 5. This could well be a vintage year. With only two Group One winners in the field (Onemorenomore – Champagne Stakes 1600m 2YO Gr 1; and Monaco Consul - STC Spring Champion Stakes 3YO Gr 1) it is logical to go with Monaco Consul. He is the only 3YO Gr 1 winner; that win was over 2000m; he beat Gathering, Viking Legend and Onemorenomore in that race…. However, logic is not always the source of wisdom in matters of the turf. Our Heir Apparent, who seems to be dropping off the radar insofar as tipsters are concerned. He did run a great second in the Geelong Classic and that form should stand up. Onemorenomore, Southern Skye and Extra Zero are good hopes. Viking Legend should be included too. It is a tough one.
7. Myer Classic: Two Words: Typhoon Tracy.
8. Seppelt Salinger Stakes: there are only two horses in this Group 2 event who have won at Group 1 level – Turffontein (Sir Rupert Clarke 2009) and Shadoways (SAJC Goodwood 2008). Shadoways’ Goodwood win was last (calendar) year and he failed in this year’s rendition and he isn’t going well. If the track is too firm, then that takes care of Turffontein’s chances too, which then brings others into play - most notably First Command, News Alert and Wasted Emotions. Wasted Emotions looks a great each way bet. If Turffontein is not scratched then that means that Anthony Cummings is confident the track won’t go against him. He needs the sting out of it and if he runs, he most certainly represents all the class in the race.
9. AAMI Business Insurance Stakes: Not absolutely certain but this could be the Chatham Stakes? Changes to race names – try and keep track if you can! That aside, this is a good field. Lots of talent amongst the combatants – many of them, however, in and out of form. This is not a betting race unless you have serious, and alternative, inside information. On displayed form McClintock should give them a galloping lesson again. But what of Sniper’s Bullet, and Triple Honour and Stickpin, Walking Or Dancing, or Fist of Fury? McClintock is honest, he is in form. That should see him salute.
Meanwhile, at Rosehill, we come back to earth with a thud! However, there are a few there worth watching. Gerald Ryan’s Intertidal looks good in the first as does The Jackal each way in race 5 (he is very effective first up). Scouting Wide is a tip in the sixth but Adnocon in the same event only needs to run up to form to be right in it, while Gangitano is a talent and will be fancied in race 7. The last race is interesting with many chances: De Lighting Ridge, Mine in Time, Brilliant Light and Rotorua all look good hopes. Races 2 and 3 have only 5 and 6 runners respectively and are races where only the owners and the desperate will bet. However, an interesting runner in race 2 is Nitrogen, a high priced purchase formerly with Lee Freedman and now with Gordon Yorke, who is 80/1 in Friday markets - yet has won his last two starts at Port Macquarie and Ballina. Is it really that much of a step up in class to a Benchmark 90 when in winning form? The topweight, Common Objective, is giving all other four opponents 5kg and probably only needs to run up to recent form to take care of them in this. Nitrogen is one to watch if for no other reason than academic interest vis a vis the new Benchmark system.
At Doomben, the fields have depth with fields of 13, 15, 12, 10 (what happened there?), 14, 16, 15, and 19. In simple terms, “Sydney” should ask “Brisbane” how to put together a race card that will attract nominations….Sneaky Long in the fourth race the Open, deserves a win and is each way odds. His last win was in June 2008 but that was the Eye Liner Stakes. He is in form and up to the task.
Enjoy Derby Day.
