The 2006 preview will be up soon for now look back at the way John Hutchinson saw the 2005 edition playing out.

THE CUP - 2005

It is down to 37, or 35, leaving out Plastered and Carte Diamond following the rather sad breaking news of the week.

On Saturday evening, it will be down to 24, and for the following few days at least, two dozen racehorses, two dozen high-class thoroughbreds, 24 stayers, with backgrounds as diverse as Australia itself, but with one common goal, will capture the imagination of racing enthusiasts worldwide.

For indeed, the Melbourne Cup is the race that stops more than just one nation these days.
Constraints on my time mean that, a week out from the great race, I sit down to write this article, my Melbourne Cup preview. I’’ll warn you now…..this is coming from someone who makes his punting mind up in the last few minutes before the race year in year out, as a rule.
So, dear reader, please bear with me. I have no idea of the barrier draw, no idea of Saturday’s racing which will shape the final make-up of the field and no idea of the all important track conditions on the day.

No idea if Makybe Diva will be asked to face the amazing date with destiny which occupies all our attention, one week out.

No idea at all, I hear you say !! But here goes anyway.

The will she/won’t she debate surrounding the mare harks back to the three year old days of the great Tulloch in 1957, don’t you reckon ? Is there anyone out there who does not have an opinion? Absolutely no one in my town, anyway.

“ If I owned Makybe Diva…”

The late, great Keith “Nugget” Miller said of Tulloch in 1957:

“ If I owned Tulloch, he’d start in the Cup. There is always some kind of chance that before the next Cup, Tulloch will have broken down”.

(From “The Melbourne Cup” by Cavanough and Davies)

Nugget’s statement was eerily prophetic, but has no bearing on the Makybe Diva debate, I well realise. And I only mention it because Lee himself was quoting the ex-fighter pilot and more than handy cricketer just last week. You know the one…the classic line about pressure being “having a Messerschmidt up your proverbial”.

Will she or won’t she?

With the Cup in mind, I found one of Glen Boss’ post-race comments on the Cox Plate rather interesting. “She was gassed at the 100m, but had them covered anyway”.

With a Cup decision to be made, this just might raise some doubt in her connections’ minds, if I am right. But, more than likely, I am wrong again.

Next in the Order of Entry is Vinnie Roe. An honorary Australian. Along with Dermot & Vintage Crop.

The great Irish horse comes to the great Australian race for the third time, and for his swansong. A four-time winner of the Irish St. Leger and runner-up to Makybe Diva last year, we welcome him back. By February, the ageing warrior, Vinnie Roe, will be at stud.

Vinnie’s lead up races to the Cup this year have been identical to last year, except that he also took in the Ascot Gold Cup, where he was a 5 length third to the Danehill pair Westerner and Distinction. While the stable will tell you his form is as good this time around, I suspect it is not, rating perhaps a fraction below his awesome peak. I think back to the likes of Rising Fast and Redcraze, both of which found the combination of weight and advancing age a bridge too far in the twilight of their careers.

But one of my most lasting Melbourne Cup memories is being on track to see Vintage Crop charge home into third place behind Doriemus in 1995. With this in mind, I’m going to pack my Vinnie mask as well as my Makybe mask. Today, the old horse is at double figure odds and some value I suggest, if you are looking away from the mare. There is no question over his courage.

The 2004 Cup may well be the best form reference for 2005, I am beginning to think.

Greys Inn is a top class, seasoned international racehorse, with significantly superior form at beyond 2000m. For this reason, it may be wise not to judge the horse on his Cox Plate run, when finishing towards the tail, a disappointing result, which was mirrored in the faces of his connections post-race. Greys Inn has to carry a good horse’s weight in 56.5kg come Tuesday and will be at long odds. But, he is a good horse at his best. And by Zabeel.

Distinction we saw (and backed) last year, when finishing a 7.4 lengths sixth to Makybe Diva, without a great deal of racing luck in running his connections thought. Since then, back home, the Danehill gelding has won the Goodwood Cup over 2 miles and run a gallant second in the marathon Ascot Gold Cup, before going off the boil a little at his last two starts, when odds-on and beaten in the Lonsdale Cup before making no show at all in the Doncaster Cup on a wet track.

Rising 2.5kg in the weights, Distinction meets Makybe Diva on the same terms as last year, not exactly a plus, but Distinction’s ratings in the UK indicate that the horse has come on a fair bit too. Like Vinnie Roe and Greys Inn, Distinction is a class horse at good odds.

Railings is next, attempting to become the twelfth dual Cups winner, after Poseidon, The Trump, Rivette, Rising Fast, Even Stevens, Galilee, Gurner’s Lane, Let’s Elope, Doriemus, Might and Power and Ethereal. With only 54kg to carry, and on the back of two excellent Group One handicap wins, Railings is certainly not weighted out of it by any means.

Railings, a son of Zabeel, looms as a major player here, right in the race provided the gelding maintains his sparkling form of the past few weeks. A horse with classic form at three, developing into the top class stayer at four, is a familiar pattern among Cup winners over the years.
And although you would never guess, Railings is a product of Racing NSW’s innovative Provincial Stayers Championship Series conducted for the first time earlier this year. Railings defeated subsequent Series winner Old Mystique (a brother to Cup winner Rogan Josh) by 2.5 lengths in a heat at Newcastle on February 19, gaining an honourable mention in the SDB at the time.

Do you reckon anyone in Racing NSW’s PR department is reading this ?

Next in the Order is Hollow Bullet, one of last season’s star classic fillies, but somewhat out of form this Spring. The four year old mare will appreciate a firm track, but will rate as an outsider on Tuesday, should she run. Hollow Bullet contests the 1600m Myer Classic on Saturday, an unusual, but interesting, lead-up .

Xcellent….what do we make of Xcellent?

Does anyone remember Terrific, in the mid-sixties ?

That is unfair. Last week, I was ever so keen on Xcellent’s Cup chances, willing to take the $10.00 on offer as the anchor for whatever free-to-good-home doubles I wished. Unbeaten in six runs in New Zealand, with four of those at Group One level, this is the nicely-weighted four year old, with the great WFA and classic form from across the Tasman. And a pedigree as long as your arm.

Xcellent’s two Australian runs rate as mysteries of the turf. Either his NZ form is not so crash hot or, as his connections say, he cannot handle a wet track. Is this really the best NZ horse since Balmerino or Bonecrusher or Rising Fast, or what?

Today, Xcellent, the Champion of New Zealand, is at $26.00 for the Cup. That, to me, is value, track conditions notwithstanding.

Dizelle won the AJC Oaks over 2400m in spectacular fashion last Autumn but I think it is fair to say the Zabeel mare has displayed somewhat mixed form this Spring. Her Caulfield Cup run, when staying on from midfield, was satisfactory, but there were a quite a few better from the race one would think. By Zabeel, and having as her grand-dam the Perth Cup winner Palatious, Dizelle should not lack for stamina. Dizelle starts from the inside gate in Saturday’s SAAB Quality.

The international Franklins Gardens, with 54.5kg and trained by Mark Tompkins, is a well-performed horse, if you take his overall career record into consideration. However, although he won the Yorkshire Cup earlier this year, Franklins Gardens will be an outsider in the race after finishing only eighth of nine in the Irish St. Leger at his last start, not quite the form we are looking for here.

How many people have you bumped into who have said they backed
Eye Popper in the Caulfield Cup? Plenty, but then again, only one or two of us said so in print before the race. I knew I would have your attention again.

As we suspected from his record, the Japanese horse is the total professional, a great stayer, with a great record. If, as they say every year, the Caulfield Cup is the best form, then Eye Popper has his share of the best form, and five will get you ten that you won’t get into a Cup conversation this week without some reference to the fact that the son of Soccer Boy meets the daughter of Desert King on 6kg better terms for handing out a 3 length beating to the mare in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) in Japan.

I know Eye Popper’s jockey disappeared quick smart after the Caulfield Cup, but does anyone know where the horse is? Still in Victoria, I assume. The barrier draw will be a factor here I feel.

The mares Portland Singa, Vouvray, Demerger and
Irish Darling are next in the Order. The foursome went around at Caulfield, the Cup winners Portland Singa and Demerger performing satisfactorily, while the Oaks winners Vouvray and Irish Darling made virtually no show. Vouvray runs in the Mackinnon on Saturday, while Irish Darling is doubtful for the Cup. Demerger made up some ground in the straight at Caulfield and her prospects will be enhanced by a wet track, while Portland Singa may have been ridden a little too close that day.

The next pair, the Queensland Group winners Sir Dex and
Lachlan River, came home towards the rear at Caulfield without ever threatening to be in the finish. Both will line up in the Mackinnon on Saturday, but will need to run well to force their way into the reckoning and/or to convince their owners to run.

Imagine this. Bazelle, like Jezabeel in 1998, is a six year old mare by the magnificent staying influence Zabeel. Both are Auckland Cup winners over 3200m, Bazelle when carrying the limit of 52kg to a comfortable victory on New Year’s Day this year. Their trainers are the brothers, Paul and Brian Jenkins.

Jezabeel went into the Cup the veteran of 25 starts for 6 wins. As will Bazelle.

On her Moonee Valley Cup run, and I dare suggest her Caulfield Stakes run, which was, to my eye, equally as good as Jezabeel’s run in the same race back then, Bazelle is one of the better outsiders for the exotics.

As we know, English import Carte Diamond is out of the Cup after Tuesday’s mishap. We feel for all concerned and wish the horse a full recovery.

The David Hayes-trained Kindjhal ran third in the Moonee Valley Cup on Saturday and was fourth in The Metropolitan to Railings before that, form which entitles the former French horse to his place in the field. Kindjhal is the winner of only three races to date, and may find the class here beyond him.

Now here’s a horse with a bolter’s chance, in my opinion. Kindjhal’s stablemate, Hugs Dancer.

Yeah, I know old Hugs is a nine year old and no nine year old has ever blah..blah..blah.

But, his run behind Leica Falcon in the Winning Edge was very, very good and his run prior in the WFA Underwood Stakes caught my eye too. Remember what I wrote earlier……the best form reference may well be the 2004 Melbourne Cup, in which Hugs Dancer, a then eight year old, was fifth.

Chances are he will not win, but I will tell you this for nothing. Hugs Dancer is racing close to his best and I reckon he’s more than a fair chance to run into the top half-dozen or so, at long, long odds.

Swift Tango is next in the Order but the Hayes horse is out of form and was scratched from