First season sire titles a poisoned chalice or crystal ball material?

Each year the battle for Champion First Season Sire honours is closely watched by many in the industry – breeders, agents, trainers, owners and even more intensely by studs and those in stallion ownership.

The results are often compared directly with the ranking of yearling sale averages in the previous season observing who has disappointed and who has popped up above the pack. At times, stallion connections ramp up the service fee of any young stallion who can secure a First Season Sire title in anticipation of that success continuing as the progeny progress through their three-year-old and four-year-old careers.

But how often does instant success for a stallion’s first crop at two years extrapolate into career-long success ? The aim of this study was to pose that question and examine the results of the Champion First Season Sires as their careers played out. Also, how have the overall leading sires of the past 25 years fared with their first crop as two-year-olds. Did they burst out of the gates with a hiss and a roar or was there a slow but gradual build-up towards sire supremacy ?

For the purposes of the study I needed two groups for comparison:
1 – The 25 Champion First Season Sires from the 1989-90 season to that of 2013-14. I only wanted to include stallions which stood in Australia so in two specific years the runner-up stallion was used instead of the Champion i.e. In 1995 Zabeel was excluded as was Defensive Play in 1997.
2 – To compile a “control” group I used the following criteria: Using the same timeframe (1989-90 to 2013-14) I scored every stallion which filled the first 3 placings on the General Sires Premiership with a 3-2-1 rating. When tallied up, any stallion which scored 3 or better was included in the control group. This meant every Champion Sire was included plus the likes of perennial high achievers such as Marauding and Scenic, totalling 14 stallions. For the final 11 slots I used a table based on Stakeswinner-runners percentages over this period, taking the first 11 stallions who met all criteria. These included evergreens such as Red Ransom and Rory’s Jester, current stars such as Snitzel and Medaglia d’Oro, high quality shuttlers like Dubawi, Singspiel, Scenic and Shamardal and a couple of mild surprises with excellent stats such as Danewin, Star Watch and Chief’s Crown. Every one of these eleven stallions had a SWs-runners strike rate of better than 7%.

Criteria applicable to both groups were:
1 – Must have been active at stud in 1986 or sooner.
2 – Must have stood at least one season in Australia.
3 – Only Australasian-conceived progeny were used as data. Shuttlers did not have Northern Hemisphere-conceived crops counted.

The champion first season sires 1990-2014

 

Seas.	Stallion-YOB-colour-Sire	1st crop foals	1st crop 2YO Rnrs/Wnrs	1st crop 2YO SH	1st crop 2YO SW	1st crop Highest earner at 2 years	% of total earnings	Highest Position Aust. General Sires Table	Best race performance at 2 years
13-14	I Am Invincible 2004 bay by Invincible Spirit	90	48-17	8	5	Brazen Beau-G2	23.7	21st	Wnr, Gr3-plcd
12-13	Northern Meteor 2005 bay by Encosta de Lago	144	47-19	8	3	Romantic Touch-G1	20.3	10th	unraced
11-12	Casino Prince 2003 bay by Flying Spur	101	38-8	3	1	All Too Hard-G2	56.4	21st	Gr3 wnr
10-11	Written Tycoon 2002 chestnut by Iglesia	89	15-6	2	0	Masthead-pG1	79.6	3rd	Gr2 wnr
09-10	Stratum 2002 bay by Redoute’s Choice	137	55-15	6	2	Crystal Lily-G1	73.5	9th	Gr1 wnr
08-09	Charge Forward 2001 bay by Red Ransom	69	31-7	2	1	Headway-G3	67.1	44th	Gr2 wnr
07-08	Exceed and Excel 2000 bay by Danehill	99	45-14	10	5	Exceedingly Good-G3	24.1	1st	Gr2 wnr
06-07	Choisir 1999 chestnut by Danehill Dancer	112	48-10	7	2	Incumbent-G2	46.9	8th	Gr3 wnr
05-06	Show A Heart 1997 chestnut by Brave Warrior	91	33-13	3	0	Mel-pLR	14.3	16th	Gr1 wnr
04-05	More Than Ready (USA) 1997 brown by Southern Halo	83	37-17	11	6	Carry On Cutie-G1	27.8	2nd	Gr2 wnr
03-04	Redoute’s Choice 1996 bay by Danehill	98	31-7	9	2	Not A Single Doubt-LR	10.7	1st	Gr1 wnr
02-03	General Nediym 1994 chestnut by Nediym	61	34-12	4	4	Regimental Gal-LR	48.5	13th	Gr2 wnr
01-02	Lion Hunter 1992 grey by Danehill	68	28-16	2	1	Lovely Jubly-G1	80.7	5th	unraced
00-01	Strategic 1992 chestnut by Zeditave	86	36-10	5	2	Fair Embrace-pLR	49.3	10th	Gr2 wnr
99-00	Flying Spur 1992 bay by Danehill	96	37-14	7	4	French Braids-G2	44.9	1st	Gr1 wnr
98-99	Perugino (USA) 1991 bay/brown by Danzig	59	21-62	2	1	Testa Rossa-G1	90.6	20th	wnr
97-98	Royal Academy (USA) 1987 bay by Nijinsky II	67	35-12	4	2	Piccadilly Circus-Gr3	50.1	4th	wnr
96-97	Umatilla (NZ) 1988 bay by Miswaki	63	32-6	4	2	Umrah-G1	53.1	9th	Gr1 wnr
95-96	St. Jude 1987 brown by Godswalk	65	38-11	1	0	Regal Centre-pG1	59.3	62nd	LR winner
94-95	Rave Report 1985 chestnut by Marscay	12	6-1	1	1	Ravarda-G1	99.5	109th	un-placed
93-94	Danehill (USA) 1986 bay by Danzig	46	25-11	6	3	Flying Spur-G1	79.2	1st	wnr
92-93	Last Tycoon (IRE) 1983 bay by Try My Best	61	40-14	8	4	Lady Jakeo-G1	30.7	1st	Gr3 wnr
91-92	Marauding (NZ) 1984 bay by Sir Tristram	54	34-13	7	4	Burst-G1	72.1	2nd	Gr1 wnr
90-91	Victory Prince 1981 chestnut by Imperial Prince	25	14-4	2	2	Tierce-G1	96.2	8th*	Gr1 wnr
89-90	Rory’s Jester 1982 chestnut by Crown Jester	45	25-15	8	4	Apollo Wonder-G2	21.6	3rd	Gr1 wnr

*ranking achieved with first crop of 2yos – All stats correct to Oct 10 2016

The 8 stallions highlighted in orange were common to the Champion First Season Sires group and “Control Group” (below highlighted in orange). These are the Super Sires ! Five of these won a General Sires title while the other 3 have each finished in the top 3 in the General Sires premiership. A 9th stallion – Marscay – was Champion First Season Sire earlier than the chronological range of the study, before winning a General Sires Premiership within the range of the study.

The CONTROL group – Champion & Leading Sires, High SW/runners ratio sires

(ranked by highest General Premiership finish and then by lifetime SW-runners ratio)

Danehill (USA) 1986 bay by Danzig	46	25-11	6	3	Flying Spur-G1	1st	1st	17.5
Bletchingly 1970 brown by Biscay	31	21-13	1	0	Bet Your Booties-pG3	2nd	1st	11.9
Redoute’s Choice 1996 bay by Danehill	98	31-7	9	2	Not A Single Doubt-LR	1st	1st	12.0
Exceed and Excel 2000 bay by Danehill	99	45-14	10	5	Exceedingly Good-G3	1st	1st	10.1
Marscay 1979 chestnut by Biscay	44	33-21	3	2	Maizcay-G2	1st	1st	9.3
Encosta de Lago 1993 bay by Fairy King	89	41-14	5	1	Tuscanos-pG1	2nd	1st	7.0
Last Tycoon (IRE) 1983 bay by Try My Best	61	40-14	8	4	Lady Jakeo-G1	1st	1st	7.2
Flying Spur 1992 bay by Danehill	96	37-14	7	4	French Braids-G2	1st	1st	6.8
Fastnet Rock 2001 bay by Danehill	152	56-12	10	1	Wanted-G3	2nd	1st	8.4
Street Cry (IRE) 1998 bay/brown by Machiavellian	55	13-4	0	0	Afghani-wnr	20th	1st	8.4
Lonhro 1998 brown by Octagonal	98	31-6	4	1	Black Minx-LR	3rd	1st	7.1
Palace Music (USA) 1981 chestnut by The Minstrel	38	12-6	0	0	Ready To Explode-wnr	11th	1st	4.2
Scenic (IRE) 1986 bay by Sadler’s Wells	54	26-7	3	2	Blevic-G1	2nd	2nd	8.1
Marauding (NZ) 1984 bay by Sir Tristram	54	34-13	7	4	Burst-G1	1st	2nd	5.3
Snitzel 2002 bay by Redoute’s Choice	81	33-10	2	1	Chance Bye-G2	2nd	2nd	8.0
More Than Ready (USA) 1997 brown by Southern Halo	83	37-17	11	6	Carry On Cutie-G1	1st	2nd	7.5
Rory’s Jester 1982 chestnut by Crown Jester	45	25-15	8	4	Apollo Wonder-G2	1st	3rd	8.7
Star Watch 1985 chestnut by Bletchingly	57	25-11	2	2	Star of Nouvelle-G2	4th	4th	9.4
Red Ransom (USA) 1987 bay by Roberto	69	29-5	4	2	Halibery-G3	3rd	9th	8.1
Danewin 1991 bay by Danehill	33	13-6	2	1	Kootoomootoo-G3	4th	11th	7.8
Dubawi (IRE) 2002 bay by Dubai Millennium	79	30-5	3	3	Cellarmaster-G3	15th	15th	10.6
Shamardal (USA) 2002 bay by Giant’s Causeway	75	36-12	2	0	Marquardt-pG2	5th	20th	10.1
Medaglia D’Oro (USA) 1999 bay/brown by El Prado	64	19-8	2	0	Shaumari-pG2	6th	21st	8.3
Chief’s Crown (USA) 1982 bay by Danzig	44	12-4	1	1	Let’s Rock Again-G2	6th	35th	9.7
Singspiel (IRE) 1992 bay by In The Wings All stats correct to Oct 10 2016	66	13-6	0	0	Paulini-wnr	6th	39th	16.1

*all stats correct to 10th October 2016

Interestingly 9 of the 25 stallions (36%) in the Control Group were Champion First Season Sires. Even more significant was the fact that 8 of this group of 9 stallions, who fell within the timespan of the study on both counts, each left at least 6 juvenile stakes performers (stakeswinners or stakesplaced) in their first crop.

The exception surprisingly was Marscay who only managed 3 first crop stakes horses although it should be remembered that this crop only totalled 44 foals. This super-group of 9 include Danehill and 3 of his sons – Redoute’s Choice, Exceed and Excel and Flying Spur. Four of this Group were Golden Slipper winners – Flying Spur, Rory’s Jester, Marauding and Marscay while Redoute’s Choice won the Blue Diamond. So more than half of the 9 translated success in this country’s two major Gr1 2yo races into not only First Crop Sire success but overall career success. No wonder phenomenal sums are paid to secure controlling interests in the colts who win these races.

A further 3 stallions from the super-group – Exceed and Excel, More Than Ready and Last Tycoon were Group 2 or Group 3 winners at two years meaning only one member of the super-group failed to win a stakes races at two. His name is Danehill and he is some exception to the rule ! The stallions which did not win a first crop premiership but went on to be leading sires comprise a talented group namely Fastnet Rock, Encosta de Lago, Street Cry, Snitzel, Palace Music, Scenic and Lonhro. Of this group however, only Street Cry and Palace Music failed to produce a 2yo stakeswinner in their First Crop.

Of the 7 stallions who qualified for the Control Group by dint of their high stakeswinners-runners strikerate, none ever finished in the top 10 on the General Sires list, with the exception of Star Watch (4th). However all placed 4th, 5th or 6th in their First Season Sire list. A rather curious result but proof that even sires which might leave later maturing stock such as Shamardal, Danewin and Dubawi will still show some form as First Crop Sires. In fact with the exception of Singspiel, the other six sires in this Group all produced a juvenile Group-performer in their first crop.

Six of the 25 stallions (24%) were Champion First Season Sire and Champion Sire on the General List. This is a much higher strike rate than some might have expected. Basically once every four years on average, the Champion First Season Sire has gone on to become a leading sire. Interestingly no stallion has achieved this since Exceed and Excel whose progeny debuted in 2007-08. I Am Invincible and Written Tycoon – Champion 1st Season Sires in 2014 & 2011 respectively – can still end that dry run that has existed since Exceed and Excel.

Northern Meteor’s opportunity was denied by his early demise. Many of the stallions who could not translate Champion First Season Sire success into a career pattern had interesting stories. Some of these were stallions who left their best performer in their first crop – such as Perugino (Testa Rossa) or Casino Prince (All Too Hard) – or in the case of Rave Report and Victory Prince their first crop revealed their only top performer who happened to be an outstanding 2yo resulting in Ravarda and Tierce, respectively. If you put aside these examples at the bottom end and also the “Magic 9” who featured in both tables, the Champion First Season Sire list has nevertheless yielded some very well-performed stallions such as Royal Academy, Northern Meteor, Choisir, General Nediym, Show A Heart and Strategic plus the pair mentioned earlier who may further their record considerably – I am Invincible and Written Tycoon. Now here’s a somewhat puzzling fact.

Of the 8 most recent Champion First Season Sires within the study, only one was actually a Group One winner at 2 years – quite an amazing stat ! The two most recent Champion First Season Sires – Hinchinbrook and Smart Missile – (and who are not counted in the study due to only having a couple of crops racing), also continue this pattern of neither being Group 1 winners at 2 although the former was a Gr2 juvenile winner while the latter was a Gr2 winner at 2 years and pre-post Golden Slipper favourite. Also only 8 of all 25 Champion First Season Sires in the study were actually Group One winners at 2 years although 20 of the 25 ended their careers as Group One winners on the track. This says more about the overall racing class of the stallion being more important than his own precocity on the track when it comes to Champion First Season Sire potential.

Finally, the past 11 Champion First Season Sires (including Hinchinbrook and Smart Missile who were not included in the study), were all foaled in Australia. More Than Ready was the last “foreigner” to capture an Australian First Season Sire title and he is now 19 years of age. In fact 16 of the last 17 Champion First Season Sires are Australian-bred. The inferences to be drawn from this are self evident. Poisoned chalice ? Definitely not ! In summary it would appear from the results of the past 30 years that the Champion First Season Sire title has a better than 1 in 3 chance of revealing a future major sire. Even those who do not go on to become Champion Sires on the General list have a better than 50% chance of making into a good commercial sire.

The likely “future failures” among first season sires can often be predicted by their highest earner as a juvenile in their first crop making up a very high percentage (89% plus) of the total earnings of their first crop at 2 years. This research is overlayed by the fact that not every stallion crop is evenly balanced. Some years were vintage in terms of the number of leading colts all retiring to stud such as 2000 when Redoute’s Choice, Commands and Mossman all began their careers while other years the new sire contingent has been underwhelming such as Victory Prince’s opposition in 1987 who was followed on the First Crop Sire list by Prince True, Raise A Cup, Party leader and Hula Chief ! This is simply the luck of the draw. Whether in a “soft” or competitive crop eventually, as their progeny get beyond 3 years, a stallions true worth is soon revealed.